Ballot Trends Predict NPP Defeat in 2024 Elections, Says Analyst

George Agyei, a panelist on Opemsuo Radio’s Nkwantannanso programme, has highlighted a significant pattern in Ghana’s Fourth Republic electoral history, linking ballot placement to the outcomes of elections involving the two major political parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

Agyei’s analysis suggests that, based on historical trends, the NPP could face a loss in the upcoming 2024 elections due to their position on the ballot.

“In Ghana when a ruling party seeks a second term in office and is placed ahead of its opponent on the ballot paper, it tends to win. However, when the ruling party is aiming for a third consecutive term and is placed ahead of its opponent on the ballot paper, it tends to lose.”

To back up his claim, he recounted key instances from Ghana’s electoral history since the inception of the Fourth Republic. Both the NPP and NDC have alternated power over the last three decades, each serving 16 years by the end of NPP’s current term in 2024.

He noted that in the 1996 elections, J.J. Rawlings of the NDC was first on the ballot and went on to win against John Agyekum Kufuor of the NPP, who picked number two.

However, in 2000, the roles were reversed. John Agyekum Kufuor was seventh on the ballot and defeated NDC’s John Evans Atta Mills, who was second.

Kufuor’s NPP then won re-election in 2004 when Kufuor picked number two on the ballot, while Atta Mills of the NDC was third.

However, in 2008, when Nana Addo of the NPP was first on the ballot, the NPP lost to John Evans Atta Mills, who was third.

The analyst also pointed to the 2012 elections, where John Dramani Mahama of the NDC, picking number one, defeated Nana Addo, who was third. The trend continued in 2016 when Mahama picked number three, and the NDC lost, with the NPP’s Nana Addo picking number five.

Drawing from these examples, Agyei suggests that the NPP’s prospects of securing a third consecutive term in 2024 could be influenced by this long-standing trend of ballot placement.

Historically, ruling parties positioned first on the ballot during their third-term bids usually lose, while the opposition benefits from the dynamic.

While Agyei clarifies that his analysis is based solely on historical patterns and not prophecy, his remarks underscore an intriguing relationship between ballot placement and electoral outcomes in Ghana’s political arena.

Ghanaians will go to the polls on December 7, 2024, to elect a new President and Members of Parliament (MPs).

Story by Jenelle A. Frimpong